THE EFFECT OF THE PLAN FOR PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF DEFORESTATION IN THE LEGAL AMAZON (PPCDAM) ON THE DIRECT CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION

Abstract

This study analyzed the possible effects of the Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm) and other environmental policies implemented in the 2000s on annual deforestation rates between 2004 and 2022, considering their main causes to understand the challenges faced throughout the period. A quantitative approach was used, with a historical deforestation series survey and an econometric panel data study to identify the impact of variables such as cattle, soy, permanent crops, timber, environmental management spending, agriculture, land organization, and rural credit stock, divided into two periods. From 2008 to 2014, deforestation rates declined due to integrated policies of monitoring, environmental control, land use planning, and sustainable productive practices, which created a more regulated environment, discouraging illegal activities and intensifying production in already deforested areas. Between 2015 and 2022, the PPCDAm faced negative initiatives and policies, weakening its outcomes. The main deforestation causes in this second period, identified through the fixed effects model (FEM), are related to cattle herd numbers and soy harvested areas, which intensified after 2019 with the plan's revocation. This highlights the importance of the PPCDAm in protecting the region, as the absence of this policy could reverse the progress made.